An electoral projection model released this week forecasts Vice President JD Vance winning the 2028 presidential race with 339 electoral votes against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 199, according to an analysis by election forecaster Election Time.
The analysis examines potential matchups for the 2028 presidential election, which remains more than two years away. The projection builds on recent electoral trends and demographic shifts to construct its map.
The Forecast Model
The analysis projects Vance securing a base of 188 electoral votes from deep-red states including Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and southern states from Texas to South Carolina. It forecasts additional Republican gains in states like Ohio, Vance’s home state, and Iowa based on recent Republican performance margins.
The model places Ocasio-Cortez with 98 solid electoral votes concentrated on the West Coast, Hawaii, and northeastern states including Vermont and Massachusetts. The projection shows her struggling to gain traction in traditionally competitive regions.
In the analysis’s likely categories, Vance reaches 246 electoral votes while Ocasio-Cortez accumulates 179, according to the forecasting breakdown. The remaining lean and tilt categories determine the final outcome.
Midwestern Realignment
The analysis identifies a significant Republican shift in the Midwest, forecasting Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to lean red for Vance following consecutive Republican wins in those states. It projects Minnesota, traditionally Democratic for over five decades, to flip to tilt red based on Vance’s regional appeal.
Virginia is modeled as another potential Republican gain, shifting to tilt red following the 2021 election of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin. The projection treats New Hampshire as moving toward Republican lean status.
Analysis and Context
The forecasting model attributes Ocasio-Cortez’s projected underperformance to her progressive policy positions and their perceived impact on moderate voters in swing regions. Election Time’s analysis compares the projected outcome unfavorably to Democratic losses in 1988, 2016, and 2024.
Prediction markets have assigned Ocasio-Cortez a 68% probability of seeking the Democratic nomination, according to the report. The analysis was released as speculation continues about potential 2028 candidates from both major parties.
This story has been updated. CNN’s Political Research team contributed to this report.